The transgender backlash and what to do about it
Recent political data and public opinion research indicate that a backlash against transgender rights is getting stronger, particularly in the United States.
The reason for this is intense anti-trans propaganda from the Republicans and the failure of pro-democracy politicians to protect and defend trans people.
Shifting support
According to a US survey presented and analyzed by Lakshya Jain in The Argument, measures once widely opposed, such as bills requiring transgender people to use bathrooms corresponding to their sex assigned at birth, now has the support of a majority of voters, with about 52 % backing such legislation and only 33 % opposing it.
Similar trends are found in sports, where over 60% of voters favor restricting trans athletes to teams based on sex assigned at birth.
The polling also finds strong opposition to gender‑affirming care for minors, including puberty blockers, hormones, and surgeries, even when supported by doctors and parents.
The effect of anti-trans propaganda
Even if many of the anti-trans bills presented by Republicans in various states fail or are stopped in the courts, the extreme propaganda targeting transgender people has had an effect.
A majority of Americans do not known that much about transgender people, gender variance or gender dysphoria. The support trans people had up till 2024 might partly have been caused by a sympathy for marginalized people in general and LGBTQ people in particular.
Remember that 2014 was seen as the “tipping point” for transgender rights. Until recently the transgender community seemed to be winning.
The backlash has been severe. The anti-trans activists has managed to establish a narrative that causes what many see as “reasonable doubt”, in spite of the fact that all serious research show that transgender identities are real, that gender dysphoria is not caused by a mental illness, and that trans women are not attacking cis women in women’s bathrooms.
The anti-trans activists present themselves as defenders of women and children, even if the whole MAGA movement is anchored in patriarchal misogyny and - as we have seen recently - the Epstein cabal of sex abusers and pedophiles.
The failure of pro-democracy politicians
It clearly has not helped that Democratic politicians, including Kamala Harris during the presidential campaign, deliberately stayed away from the topic out of fear of losing voters. This was most likely taken as proof of there being something wrong with the trans community by some voters. If the Democrats do not want to talk about trans people, there must be something wrong, right?
Some Democratic politicians mistakenly believed that debating Republicans on transgender issues would give bad policies more attention. Others let cynicism trump decency, chasing transphobic voters.
But LGBTQ+ issues are actually not driving voter behavior. Democrats lead the generic ballot. The Republicans have not succeeded in using trans issues from distracting voters from Trump’s failures on other fronts, the economy, foreign policy and immigration included.
On the other hand: Trump’s overall unpopularity has not translated into more tolerant views on gender identity either. If the Democrats had associated the transgender cause with MAGA fascism in general, that might have turned out differently.
Because the MAGA anti-trans policies are taken straight out of the fascist playbook: Find a marginalized group and make people believe they cause everything bad in the world. Hitler blamed the Jews, Trump blame trans people. The anti-trans crusade is proof of this being part of a fascist takeover, but instead of making that clear to Americans, most pro-democracy politicians and influencers take cover.
There are, fortunately, signs of some pro-democracy politicians understanding what is at stake.
First hand experience
Trump has also failed to turn the increasing skepticism towards trans people into hatred of all LGBTQ people. Support for same‑sex marriage remains strong and stable. But this is partly because Americans are more likely to know gay and bisexual people personally. They know from first hand experience that gay people are just people like themselves. They are not equally familiar with trans people.
However, the way so many Americans have turned against trans people in so short a time, tells me that this may also happen to other queer people. There is good reason to think that the next stage of the culture war will be against the rest of the LGBTQ community.
The ultimate goal for the right wing extremists and religious fundamentalists is a society governed through traditional gender roles and the old fashioned American cishet middle class family, and in order for that to happen, heterosexuality has to be the only option.
The Humanist Report
Mike Figueredo from the Humanist Report discusses Jain’s article over at YouTube. Even if he shares many of Jain’s observations he argues strongly against reading these numbers as proof of trans activist overreach:
He argues that the reason why support for trans people has slipped is “because Americans have been bombarded with non-stop anti-trans propaganda for nearly four years.”
He is right. And ultimately this is not only about trans people, either. It is about allowing a group of clearly evil bigots to destroy the decency and compassion needed to uphold a thriving democracy.
Top illustration: Getty
Originally published over at Crossdreamers.
Follow the recent transgender news over at Transgender Report!
I looked at the Transgender Report. Nice website. I'm going to follow it. I want to see that glossary also. When I get to it. I have the link. The first link in this article for YouTube did not work though. Well, actually I got to the page but I had to sign up. And it didn't work when I created my own username. I wasn't ready to get into all that and I could have kept going. But I have enough accounts signed up for already that I have to sort through. Blogs and academic stuff. So maybe another time.
I did watch the other presentation, and what you have is very good. This is the kind of coverage we need. It's comprehensive, and I like all the articles you have sorted together. So I will be following.
This article is short but thought-provoking.
Open-ended & nonspecific questions or statements are killing us. As the article says, if we are not clear, then people just think surgeries happen to kids willy-nilly, and all the time. When the truth is they are rare. And I'm still routinely hearing people use the words "mutilation" or that surgeries are just "lobbing off" body parts (as though it's done in a clandestine location, and hastily, without much thought). The Republicans, anti-trans groups, and their organizations have succeeded to a large extent. We have to be honest about how they made some language stick. And now people who aren't trans or queer have a mindset or certain reactions just by hearing the word transgender in the news at this point. Everybody is saturated and sick of it. It's understandable. And when they keep pounding the table and making the same points over and over, which they do on Substack, they create an over- representation of false claims and bad stories about trans people. This is a concern.
This is deeply worrying. The analysis, including that offered in the Humanist Report video, that constant anti-trans messaging and the reluctance of Democrats to push back for fear of losing votes, is very troubling. Stating facts to challenge the lies is a responsibility for all of us, hopefully including those on the political stage who genuinely care about basic human rights rather than saving their seats.